Dungeon Master's Dice (and other probability problems) - Ian Thompson
25th February 2017
Very few events in life are certain. For some, the probability is
close to zero (you are going to win the National Lottery next week);
for others, it is close to one (if you play Andy Murray at tennis,
you will lose). However, it is often said that only two things are
certain (death and taxes!).
In this class, we will introduce some of the main ideas from
probability using simple exercises involving cards and dice. We will
see that probabilities can be counter-intuitive, and can appear
difficult to calculate, but we will also see that thinking about
probability in the correct way usually makes things (fairly)
straightforward. Finally, we will examine a situation in which failure
to think carefully about probability can (and does) lead to tragic
consequences.